Raws li kev siv tsheb fais fab thoob ntiaj teb (EV) nrawm dua - nrog rau xyoo 2024 kev muag khoom tshaj 17.1 lab units thiab kev kwv yees ntawm 21 lab los ntawm xyoo 2025 - qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv muaj zogCov chaw them hluav taws xob EVtau mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws uas tsis tau muaj dua li. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev loj hlob no tshwm sim tawm tsam keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam, kev lag luam tsis sib haum xeeb, thiab kev tsim kho tshiab ntawm thev naus laus zis, hloov kho qhov kev sib tw raucov chaw muab kev pabcuam them nqi. 1. Kev Loj Hlob ntawm Kev Lag Luam thiab Kev Hloov Pauv Hauv Cheeb Tsam Kev lag luam khoom siv them hluav taws xob EV yuav loj hlob ntawm 26.8% CAGR, mus txog $ 456.1 billion txog xyoo 2032, tsav los ntawm kev siv cov chaw them hluav taws xob rau pej xeem thiab tsoomfwv cov nyiaj pab. Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb hauv cheeb tsam suav nrog:
- Tebchaws Asmeskas Qaum Teb:Txog xyoo 2025, yuav muaj ntau tshaj 207,000 qhov chaw them roj rau pej xeem, txhawb nqa los ntawm $ 5 billion hauv tsoomfwv cov nyiaj pab raws li Txoj Cai Kev Nqis Peev thiab Kev Ua Haujlwm (IIJA). Txawm li cas los xij, kev nce nqi se tsis ntev los no hauv lub sijhawm Trump (piv txwv li, 84% ntawm cov khoom siv EV Suav) ua rau muaj kev hem thawj rau cov saw hlau thiab kev ruaj khov ntawm tus nqi.
- Tebchaws Europe:Lub hom phiaj yog kom muaj 500,000 lub chaw them roj teeb rau pej xeem los ntawm xyoo 2025, nrog rau kev tsom mus rauDC them ceev ceevraws txoj kev loj. Txoj cai tswjfwm ntawm EU uas muaj cov khoom siv hauv tebchaws 60% rau cov haujlwm pej xeem yuam kom cov neeg muab khoom txawv teb chaws tsim khoom hauv zos.
- Asia-Pacific:Tuam Tshoj yog tus tswj hwm, uas tuav 50% ntawm cov chaw them hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb. Cov lag luam tshiab xws li Is Nrias teb thiab Thaib teb tab tom siv cov cai tswjfwm EV nruj, nrog rau Thaib teb lub hom phiaj los ua lub hauv paus tsim khoom EV hauv cheeb tsam.
2. Kev Nce Qib ntawm Kev Siv Tshuab Uas Tsav Kev Xav Tau Kev Them Fais Fab Siab (HPC) thiab kev tswj hwm lub zog ntse tab tom hloov pauv kev lag luam:
- 800V platforms:Ua los ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim tsheb xws li Porsche thiab BYD, kev them ceev ceev (80% hauv 15 feeb) tab tom dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb, xav tau 150-350kW DC chargers.
- Kev Sib Koom Tes V2G:Cov txheej txheem them ob txoj kev tso cai rau EVs kom ruaj khov cov grids, sib haum nrog lub hnub ci thiab cov kev daws teeb meem cia khoom. Tesla tus qauv NACS thiab Tuam Tshoj GB / T yog cov thawj coj hauv kev sib koom tes.
- Kev Them Nyiaj Wireless:Cov thev naus laus zis tshiab inductive tau txais kev rub mus rau cov nkoj lag luam, txo cov sijhawm tsis ua haujlwm hauv cov chaw logistics.
3. Cov Teeb Meem Kev Lag Luam thiab Cov Lus Teb Zoo Kev Teeb Meem Kev Lag Luam thiab Kev Nyuaj Siab Txog Tus Nqi:
- Cov Kev Cuam Tshuam ntawm Cov Nqi Se:Cov se ntawm Tebchaws Meskas rau cov khoom siv EV Suav (txog li 84%) thiab cov lus txib ntawm EU hauv zos yuam kom cov chaw tsim khoom siv ntau yam khoom siv. Cov tuam txhab zoo liBeiHai zogPawg neeg tab tom tsim cov chaw sib dhos ua ke hauv Mexico thiab Southeast Asia kom zam dhau cov luag haujlwm.
- Kev Txo Nqi Roj Teeb:Tus nqi roj teeb lithium-ion poob qis 20% hauv xyoo 2024 mus rau $ 115 / kWh, txo cov nqi EV tab sis ua rau kev sib tw nqi ntawm cov neeg muab khoom charger nce ntxiv.
Cov cib fim hauv Kev Siv Hluav Taws Xob Lag Luam:
- Kev Xa Khoom Kawg-Mile:Cov tsheb thauj khoom hluav taws xob, uas kwv yees tias yuav tswj hwm kev lag luam $ 50 billion los ntawm xyoo 2034, xav tau cov chaw them hluav taws xob DC ceev ceev uas tuaj yeem nthuav dav.
- Kev Thauj Mus Los Rau Pej Xeem:Cov nroog zoo li Oslo (88.9% kev siv EV) thiab cov lus txib rau thaj chaw xoom-emission (ZEZs) yog qhov tsav tsheb xav tau rau cov tes hauj lwm them hluav taws xob hauv nroog uas muaj neeg coob heev.
4. Cov Tswv Yim Tseem Ceeb rau Cov Neeg Ua Lag Luam Hauv Kev Lag Luam Yuav kom vam meej hauv qhov chaw nyuaj no, cov neeg koom nrog yuav tsum muab qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau:
- Kev Tsim Khoom Hauv Zos:Koom tes nrog cov chaw tsim khoom hauv cheeb tsam (piv txwv li, Tesla's EU gigafactories) kom ua raws li cov cai ntawm cov ntsiab lus thiab txo cov nqi logistics.
- Kev Sib Tw Ntau Tus Qauv:Tsim cov chargers txhawb nqaCCS1, CCS2, GB/T, thiab NACSlos pab cov lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.
- Kev Ruaj Ntseg ntawm Grid:Kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov chaw nres tsheb fais fab hnub ci thiab cov software sib npaug ntawm qhov hnyav kom txo tau qhov kev ntxhov siab ntawm lub grid.
Txoj Kev Tom Ntej Txawm hais tias muaj kev kub ntxhov hauv ntiaj teb thiab kev lag luam tsis zoo, kev them hluav taws xob EV tseem yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas hais txog ob qho tseem ceeb rau xyoo 2025-2030:
- Cov Lag Luam Tshiab:Tebchaws Africa thiab Latin America muaj peev xwm tseem tsis tau siv, nrog rau 25% kev loj hlob txhua xyoo hauv kev siv EV xav tau kev siv hluav taws xob pheej yigAC thiab kev them nyiaj ntawm xov tooj ntawm tes.
- Txoj Cai Tsis Paub Tseeb:Kev xaiv tsa hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab kev sib tham txog kev lag luam ntawm EU tuaj yeem txhais dua cov toj roob hauv pes kev pab nyiaj txiag, xav tau kev ywj pheej los ntawm cov tuam txhab tsim khoom.
Xaus lusKev lag luam them hluav taws xob EV sawv ntawm txoj kev sib tshuam: kev tsim kho tshiab ntawm thev naus laus zis thiab lub hom phiaj ruaj khov txhawb kev loj hlob, thaum cov nqi them thiab cov qauv sib cais xav tau kev tsim kho tshiab. Cov tuam txhab uas lees txais kev ywj pheej, kev ua haujlwm hauv zos, thiab cov khoom siv ntse yuav coj kev them mus rau yav tom ntej uas siv hluav taws xob.Rau cov kev daws teeb meem uas tau hloov kho tshwj xeeb los daws qhov teeb meem no, [Tiv Tauj Peb] hnub no.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Plaub Hlis-18-2025
